Three thoughts on Ukraine and China from Rep. Adam Smith
The Congressman suggested negotiations with Russia could happen as early as October.
Hours before Rep. Adam Smith took the virtual stage at the Crosscut Ideas Festival to talk about foreign policy, reports of explosions at the Kremlin provided a reminder of the ever-evolving state of the conflict over Ukraine.
Smith, who for four years chaired the House Armed Services Committee and is currently the Democrats’ ranking member on the committee, spent the session discussing developments in the war in Ukraine, as well as ongoing tensions between China and the U.S.
Rep. Smith cast doubt on Russian claims that Ukraine was behind the attack, noting that he has not been fully briefed on the matter. “Things are not going well for Russia in Ukraine,” he said. “[Putin] needs something to get the Russian people to get behind him — the burning of the Reichstag, if you will."
Here are three other takeaways from the session:
1. Strategic ambiguity is necessary when it comes to Taiwan. Rep. Smith noted that some in Congress have responded to growing tensions between China and Taiwan by calling for the U.S. to state clearly its support for the island’s independence. Smith said that is the wrong tack. He voiced support for the continuation of the so-called “One China” policy, which recognizes the People’s Republic of China as the “sole government of China” while also allowing the U.S. to support Taiwan’s right to self-determination. Smith also called for greater military support for Taiwan, suggesting that the U.S. could help turn Taiwan into a “porcupine.”
2. Investment abroad does not equal disinvestment at home. The Congressman said he does not believe Ukraine has distracted Congress from the domestic issues he finds most pressing, such as income inequity, threats to democracy and climate change. He pointed to $7 trillion in additional spending, including the CHIPS and Science Act and infrastructure investments, as evidence that the federal government can get things done while also sinking resources into international affairs. “It’s not like if we weren’t engaged in Ukraine, everything would be fine here,” he said.
3. There is a path to a negotiated peace with Russia, soon. Rep. Smith pointed to a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive that he believes could push Russian forces back to near the February 2022 border and threaten Russia’s hold on the disputed Crimean peninsula. “That forces him to the table.” Smith suggested negotiations could happen as early as October and said he would like to see a “One Ukraine” policy in which Crimea is a part of Ukraine, "but we're not going to quibble about the details" in how that is done.
Watch a replay of the session here. Or subscribe to the Crosscut Talks podcast to hear this and other Crosscut Ideas Festival sessions in the coming weeks. New episodes will publish every Tuesday and Thursday on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts.