So far, nothing I have seen or heard of this week causes me to change my outlook expressed on Tuesday regarding the elections.
At the national level, the generic ballot polls continue to be strongly Republican, and the predictions for GOP gains in the House still range from the mid 40 to the low 60s. Enough, either way, to give the Republicans control over the House. The only movement on the Senate side appears to be in California, where Barbara Boxer seems to be pulling ahead.
Here at home a new Rasmussen poll shows Dino Rossi ahead 48-47 percent. This reflects a very slight movement towards Rossi since the last public polls were released, but really just confirms that this race is too close to call.
SurveyUSA has a new poll out showing Jaime Herrera leading by only 4 percent in the Third CD, but in my view, SurveyUSA has once again oversampled Democrats. In a district that is Republican enough that Dino Rossi carried it in 2008 while losing statewide, I just don’t believe Democrats will enjoy a 4 percent advantage this year. Even with this sample, Herrera is ahead, and she has never trailed in any poll released in this race. I continue to believe she and Rep. Dave Reichert will win comfortably, and that the race between John Koster and Rick Larsen is the one to watch.
When it comes to the legislature, the Republican and Democratic consultants I have spoken to agree that the GOP will make major gains, but aren’t likely to take majorities in either house.
Finally, in terms of the all important factor of turnout, so far Republican areas of the state are returning their ballots at a higher rate than are Democratic areas of the state, especially Seattle — a very good sign for Republicans.
